4474 Caicos Dr

Tavares, FL 32778

$225,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,047/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax + insurance: −$419
• HOA: −$70
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-679/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $63,252

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-679/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (9.4% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tavares Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 61% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $226k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.