4474 Caicos Dr · Tavares, FL 32778

$225,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2007 8,250 sqft lot Est $250k · 10% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This former model home is absolutely immaculate and move in ready! This is not a short sale or foreclosure and the seller can close quickly! This 3/2 has a large living/family room and a split bedroom floor plan with vaulted ceilings. It also has a screened in lanai on the back. You'll loved the beautifully maintained and manicured lawn as well. Make your appointment to see this home before it's gone!

Key facts

• 8,250 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; Homestead exempt
• Financial info: Total monthly HOA: $70; Total annual HOA fees: $840
• HOA & community: HOA: Groves At Baytree — required monthly fee ($70); Community pool; Fitness center; Racquetball court; Recreation facilities; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High‑speed internet/BB available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Screened porch; In-ground pool; Mature landscaping with trees; City limits lot; Level lot; Sidewalks; Paved roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; High ceilings; Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom layout; Attic; Great room
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-679/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tavares Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 61% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $226k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,656 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4873 Marsh Harbor Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+6%)	0mo	$275,000	$201	76
4464 Caicos Dr	0.01mi	3/3.0	1,470 (+14%)	2mo	$310,000	$211	71
239 Juniper Way	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-5%)	4mo	$230,000	$187	66
31710 Clayton St	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (+3%)	16mo	$150,000	$113	65
401 Baytree Blvd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+8%)	9mo	$244,000	$175	55
517 Baytree Blvd	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+4%)	21mo	$262,000	$195	52
880 Vindale Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-7%)	5mo	$255,000	$212	50
204 Baytree Blvd	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (+12%)	4mo	$262,000	$181	49
3323 Manatee Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (+5%)	14mo	$190,000	$140	47
2722 Vindale Rd	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-8%)	19mo	$230,000	$194	46
340 Juniper Way	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,111 (-14%)	12mo	$215,000	$194	43
325 Baytree Blvd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+13%)	19mo	$300,000	$206	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,924
• Equity at exit: $33,682

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-28,099
• Equity at exit: $19,532

Cash invested: $63,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,895/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,118

Max offer price $215,906

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $7	+0% $-57	+5% $-121	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-137	+0% $-57	+5% $24	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $1	base $-57	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,475
• Closing costs: $6,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4659 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,125	$1.21	6d	1	0.26mi
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,900	$1.38	0d	1	0.28mi
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,900	$1.55	0d	1	0.35mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	25d	1	0.35mi
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	19d	1	0.58mi
3224 Manatee Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,600	$1.02	6d	1	0.60mi
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	25d	1	0.94mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	23d	1	0.95mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	4d	1	1.07mi
465 Oak Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	3.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	25d	1	1.32mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	25d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $225,900 Active
3. 2014-09-05
   soldstatus $125,000
4. 2014-08-29
   soldstatus $125,000 Sold 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   This former model home is absolutely immaculate and move in ready! This is not a short sale or foreclosure and the seller can close quickly! This 3/2 has a large living/family room and a split bedroom floor plan with vaulted ceilings. It also has a screened in lanai on the back. You'll loved the beautifully maintained and manicured lawn as well. Make your appointment to see this home before it's gone!

5. 2014-08-02
   status Pending 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   This former model home is absolutely immaculate and move in ready! This is not a short sale or foreclosure and the seller can close quickly! This 3/2 has a large living/family room and a split bedroom floor plan with vaulted ceilings. It also has a screened in lanai on the back. You'll loved the beautifully maintained and manicured lawn as well. Make your appointment to see this home before it's gone!

6. 2014-07-16
   price $129,995 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   This former model home is absolutely immaculate and move in ready! This is not a short sale or foreclosure and the seller can close quickly! This 3/2 has a large living/family room and a split bedroom floor plan with vaulted ceilings. It also has a screened in lanai on the back. You'll loved the beautifully maintained and manicured lawn as well. Make your appointment to see this home before it's gone!

7. 2014-07-09
   listed $135,000 Active 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   This former model home is absolutely immaculate and move in ready! This is not a short sale or foreclosure and the seller can close quickly! This 3/2 has a large living/family room and a split bedroom floor plan with vaulted ceilings. It also has a screened in lanai on the back. You'll loved the beautifully maintained and manicured lawn as well. Make your appointment to see this home before it's gone!

8. 2008-03-07
   soldstatus $177,000 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   New 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Two Car Garage Home. Located In Active Lifestyle Community. Pool, Gymnasium with Basketball, Weight Room, Racquetball. $58.92/Mo Maintenance Fee.

9. 2007-02-20
   listed $177,895 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   New 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Two Car Garage Home. Located In Active Lifestyle Community. Pool, Gymnasium with Basketball, Weight Room, Racquetball. $58.92/Mo Maintenance Fee.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,895 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,895 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,654
• − Property taxes: −$3,895
• − Insurance: −$1,130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$6,572
• Taxable loss: −$4,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+27.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Listed $225,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-29 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-16 Price Changed $129,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-09 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-07 Sold (MLS) $177,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-20 Listed $177,895 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,895 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.