1408 Brickell Bay Dr #917

Miami, FL 33131

$338,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 787 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Active · 507 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax + insurance: −$1,124
• HOA: −$903
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$886
• Net cashflow: $-466/mo
• Annual: $-5,592/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $94,640

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $338k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (24.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $338k).
• It's been on market 507 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southside Preparatory Academy (math 54% / reading 61%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 929 students, 39% FRL); Shenandoah Middle School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #381 of 571 statewide, top 67%, 1,296 students, 72% FRL); Booker T. Washington Senior High (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #604 of 667 statewide, top 91%, 1,014 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1023 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $338k implies a 839% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 507 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.