1408 Brickell Bay Dr #917 · Miami, FL 33131

$338,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 787 sqft · Condo public records · 507 Days on market

Built 1964 $903/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great Bones and Potential for this Wonderful 9th floor unit. Location, Size, Bay and City views, makes this apartment very attractive. Bright and lots of closet space. Building has reserves. Maintenance includes air conditioning and hot water . Building in the process of 60 year recertification where all items have been addressed and there are no surprises. .. Amenities includes Pool, Gym, BBQ area

Key facts

• Lots of closet space
• Bbq area
• Pool

Tags

• BAY AND CITY VIEWS
• LOTS OF CLOSET SPACE
• POOL
• GYM
• BBQ AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with possible restrictions (conditional)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association covers HVAC, hot water, insurance, laundry, grounds maintenance, pool(s), reserve fund, and security; Community amenities include bike storage, fitness center, barbecue, picnic area, pool, trash service, and elevators

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with one covered space; Garage door opener
• Security: Complex fencing; Doorman; Key card entry
• Utilities: Cable available; Waterfront (bay front); Heated pool
• Home design: Attached property; 14-story building; Entry located on level 9; Resale unit
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Barbecue; Open balcony/patio

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; First-floor entry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $338k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (24.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $338k).
• Recommended offer: $256k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southside Preparatory Academy (math 54% / reading 61%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 929 students, 39% FRL); Shenandoah Middle School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #381 of 571 statewide, top 67%, 1,296 students, 72% FRL); Booker T. Washington Senior High (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #604 of 667 statewide, top 91%, 1,014 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1019 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 507 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $338k implies a 839% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,686 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 507 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.09% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-74,549
• Equity at exit: $64,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-103,955
• Equity at exit: $53,491

Cash invested: $94,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33131

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1019
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax from tax record: −$557 /mo · $6,684/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$903
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$886
• Net cashflow: $-466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,810

Max offer price $255,686

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-275	-5% $-370	+0% $-466	+5% $-562	+10% $-657
Rent	-10% $-799	-5% $-633	+0% $-466	+5% $-299	+10% $-133
Rate	-1.0pp $-296	-0.5pp $-380	base $-466	+0.5pp $-554	+1.0pp $-643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,500
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 NE 1st Ave Unit 1227496P Miami, FL	3.0	1.0–3.0	904	$8,354	$9.24	1d	4	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $903 · $10,836/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $338,000 Active 507 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $338,000 Active 504 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $338,000 Active 503 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $338,000 Active 502 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $338,000 Active 501 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $338,000 Active 499 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $338,000 Active 495 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,000 Active 494 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,000 Active 493 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $338,000 Active 490 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $338,000 Active 489 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $338,000 Active 488 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $338,000 Active 487 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $338,000 Active 486 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $338,000
16. 2026-03-24
    price $349,000
17. 2025-07-24
    price $399,000
18. 2025-01-30
    listed $439,224 Active
19. 1974-06-01
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,684 · $557/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,684 · $557/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$6,684
• − Insurance: −$6,808
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,051
• − Management: −$4,051
• − HOA: −$10,836
• − Depreciation: −$9,833
• Taxable loss: −$10,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,533
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #2724

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 827,308
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,095
• Household income: $144,138
• Rent vs Own: 63.0% rent · 37.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1866.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 35% White 33% Asian 4% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 8% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 54% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 53% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Current HPI: 281.1156
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+838.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $338,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $349,000 MARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $399,000 MARMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listed $439,224 MARMLS
• 1974-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,684 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.