304 Mesa Dr

Bryan, TX 77802

$250,000D+

4 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 2003 · MultiFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,484/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$410
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $242/mo
• Annual: $2,899/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $121/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (0.6% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $248k (0.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D+.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sul Ross El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 545 students, 75% FRL); Stephen F Austin (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 1,206 students, 76% FRL); Travis B Bryan H S (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,419 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.0% in Bryan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.