304 Mesa Dr · Bryan, TX 77802

$250,000

4 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2003 7,074 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Duplex consisting of a 3 bed 3 bath with a long term tenant and a vacant 2 bed 2 bath

Key facts

• 7,074 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2003

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $121/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (0.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.0% in Bryan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D+.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sul Ross El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 545 students, 75% FRL); Stephen F Austin (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 1,206 students, 76% FRL); Travis B Bryan H S (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,419 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,400 (0.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-28,007
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-16,122
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77802

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$306 /mo · $3,667/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $312	+0% $242	+5% $171	+10% $100
Rent	-10% $45	-5% $143	+0% $242	+5% $340	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $305	base $242	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $111

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,484
Total (2 units)			$2,484

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1815 Gettysburg Ln Unit 1328085P Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$3,721	$2.32	23d	1	0.43mi
908 Water Locust Dr Bryan, TX	3.0	3.0	1658	$1,800	$1.09	15d	1	0.94mi
807 S Coulter Dr Bryan, TX	4.0	3.0	2154	$2,250	$1.04	45d	1	1.05mi
509 E Pruitt St Bryan, TX	4.0	4.0	2052	$2,200	$1.07	15d	1	1.05mi
1802 Carter Creek Pkwy Unit 1328069P Bryan, TX	5.0	2.0	2443	$4,457	$1.82	15d	1	1.08mi
2702 Apple Creek Cir Bryan, TX	4.0	3.0	2198	$2,800	$1.27	15d	1	1.20mi
2713 Colony Vista Ct Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1882	$2,500	$1.33	45d	1	1.26mi
2902 Chaparral Cir Bryan, TX	4.0	3.0	2181	$3,000	$1.38	23d	1	1.33mi
2703 Colony Glen Dr Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,600	$1.39	23d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-07-29
   soldstatus
2. 2025-06-25
   status Pending
3. 2025-06-20
   listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,667 · $306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$908/yr (+$76/mo · 24.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,667
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,385
• − Management: −$2,385
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$277
• After-tax cash flow: $3,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bryan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3341

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 101,772
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,762
• Household income: $70,666
• Rent vs Own: 49.1% rent · 50.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.67%
• Current HPI: 202.0858
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-25 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $250,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,667 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.