4140 Davis Dr

Levittown, PA 19067

$89,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Pending · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$860
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $322/mo
• Annual: $3,867/yr
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.36%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 2.50%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#470 in PA, #4,342 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Pennsbury SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #67 of 539 in PA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Penn Valley El Sch (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,049 of 1,518 statewide, top 71%, 383 students, 52% FRL); William Penn Ms (math 31% / reading 70%, grade C, #125 of 512 statewide, top 25%, 922 students, 32% FRL); Pennsbury Hs (math 67% / reading 75%, grade B+, #41 of 437 statewide, top 10%, 2,865 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 15% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.0% in Levittown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.