33 Convent Ave #23

New York, NY 10027

$545,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1910 · Condo · Active · 320 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,830/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax + insurance: −$908
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,434
• Net cashflow: $1,629/mo
• Annual: $19,552/yr
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.81%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $152,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $545k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $545k).
• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $480k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $153k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,830/mo this rent would consume 138% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 5635% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.