236 County Road 5102f

Plum Grove, TX 77327

$199,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,673/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$12
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-190/mo
• Annual: $-2,275/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1585 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Landscaping — Basic landscaping, needs some attention