236 County Road 5102f · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$199,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.31 ac lot $140/sqft · 27% below area Est $271k · 27% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newer single-story home in Santa Fe featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car attached garage. Open-concept layout connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a bright and functional space. Enjoy a covered patio overlooking a spacious fenced lot with room to expand or entertain. Built in 2022, offering a great opportunity to add your own updates and value. Conveniently located near TX-99, with easy access to Valley Ranch Town Center, Big Rivers Waterpark & Adventures, Lake Houston Wilderness Park, and everyday shopping and dining in the growing Cleveland/Plum Grove area.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Spacious fenced lot
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS FENCED LOT
• NEAR BIG RIVERS WATERPARK
• EVERYDAY SHOPPING AND DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,506 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,322
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -26.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Road 51022	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,420 (0%)	5mo	$179,400	$126	75
84 County Road 5102a	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,518 (+7%)	11mo	$268,990	$177	63
1354 Road 5102 I	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+6%)	9mo	$175,000	$116	62
191 Road 51022	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-13%)	6mo	$259,500	$211	53
1148 Road 5102	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+12%)	3mo	$275,000	$173	51
304 Dam Drop Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,578 (+11%)	1mo	$245,000	$155	50
96 County Road 51030	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+7%)	10mo	$277,990	$183	47
885 Road 5102	0.67mi	3/3.0	1,301 (-8%)	10mo	$254,990	$196	46
28818 Bobcat Run Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+9%)	7mo	$249,990	$161	44
305 Violet Crown Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+9%)	7mo	$259,990	$168	42
867 Road 5102	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-8%)	12mo	$249,990	$192	40
6718 Arabella Lakes Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (+12%)	11mo	$356,770	$224	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,513
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-45,007
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,475/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $165,506

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-133	+0% $-190	+5% $-246	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-256	+0% $-190	+5% $-124	+10% $-57
Rate	-1.0pp $-89	-0.5pp $-139	base $-190	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Road 5102 F Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,501	$0.85	24d	1	0.26mi
670 Road 51021 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,749	$1.03	0d	7	0.28mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.59mi
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	24d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $199,000 Active 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    Newer single-story home in Santa Fe featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car attached garage. Open-concept layout connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a bright and functional space. Enjoy a covered patio overlooking a spacious fenced lot with room to expand or entertain. Built in 2022, offering a great opportunity to add your own updates and value. Conveniently located near TX-99, with easy access to Valley Ranch Town Center, Big Rivers Waterpark & Adventures, Lake Houston Wilderness Park, and everyday shopping and dining in the growing Cleveland/Plum Grove area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,475 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,475 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,475
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,364
• After-tax cash flow: $-911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Santa Fe is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good roof, exterior, and foundation, and the interior walls and paint are in good condition. The home has a good rehab level of cosmetic, with minor repairs needed in the landscaping. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value are painting the interior walls, replacing the carpet with hardwood or tile flooring, and improving the landscaping and curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Basic landscaping, needs some attention

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improved landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Basic landscaping, needs some attention	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improved landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $199,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+40.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,475 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.