25085 Hillcrest Dr

Seligman, AZ 86337

$73,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,676/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $820/mo
• Annual: $9,837/yr
• Cap rate: 19.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.13%
• DSCR: 3.14
• 1% rule: 2.30%
• Cash to close: $20,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $820 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#127 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Seligman Unified District (4472) (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #339 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $73k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 4.1% in Seligman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.