25085 Hillcrest Dr · Seligman, AZ 86337

$73,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1995 2.13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location for residential / service zoned lot. Just off of pavement and close to town. Everybody coming in or out of Bridge Canyon must pass Hillcrest Drive. There is an existing septic tank for 3 bedroom home. Flat and usable. Electricity at the lot line. Mostly fenced.

Key facts

• Large water cisterns
• Included rv
• 2.13 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE WATER CISTERNS
• INCLUDED RV

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is level, rural and approximately 2.13 acres; Private maintained, unimproved dirt road frontage; Zoned RS-3
• HOA & community: Subdivision offers clubhouse and community kitchen; membership optional; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street RV parking
• Utilities: Cistern water source; Hauled water; Other utilities; Water heater: Other (see remarks)
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); 12x80 plan; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Construction materials: Other; Piers foundation; Built area approximately 1,280
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Shed(s); Perimeter fencing; See remarks for additional exterior details

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances listed in remarks
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: See remarks
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating
• Interior features: Master bedroom on main level; See remarks for appliances; See remarks for flooring
• Laundry & utility: See remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $820 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 4.1% in Seligman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#127 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Seligman Unified District (4472) (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #339 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $73k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,905 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.13%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $43,500
• Equity at exit: $14,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $107,970
• Equity at exit: $12,111

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86337

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $820

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $870	-5% $845	+0% $820	+5% $795	+10% $769
Rent	-10% $687	-5% $754	+0% $820	+5% $886	+10% $952
Rate	-1.0pp $857	-0.5pp $838	base $820	+0.5pp $801	+1.0pp $782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $73,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $73,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $73,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $73,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $73,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $73,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $73,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $73,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    remarks 371-char remark
18. 2026-05-31
    listed $69,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $9,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,214
• After-tax cash flow: $7,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seligman Unified District (4472)
• NCES district ID: 0407630
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $35,531
• Composite: 23.7/100
• National rank: #13238
• State rank: #339 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Seligman

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #16174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,827

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.00%
• Current HPI: 196.1506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+176.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $69,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $70,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $75,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $85,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-17 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-18 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Listed $99,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $24,995 Public Records
• 2021-06-08 Sold (MLS) $24,995 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $58 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.