134 Valley Dr

North Spearfish, SD 57783

$114,875B+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 2012 · Manufactured · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,003/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$602
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $873/mo
• Annual: $10,473/yr
• Cap rate: 15.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.56%
• DSCR: 2.45
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $32,165

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#116 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spearfish School District 40-2 (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #32 of 59 in SD (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.