134 Valley Dr · North Spearfish, SD 57783

$114,875

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2012 $101/sqft · 8% below area Est $140k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• En-suite bathroom
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• SOAKING TUB
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed; Located in Spearfish Valley Motor Home Estates; directions: Spearfish Valley Estates off Old Hwy 14

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#116 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spearfish School District 40-2 (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #32 of 59 in SD (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,428 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.56%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,956
• List price: $114,875
• Delta: -17.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Valley Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	7mo	$102,000	$84	77
125 Grandview Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	8mo	$105,000	$86	74
139 Grandview Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	14mo	$79,000	$66	73
129 Grandview Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	980 (-14%)	22mo	$72,000	$73	51
111 Vale Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-7%)	18mo	$132,500	$125	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $36,950
• Equity at exit: $17,128

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $103,665
• Equity at exit: $9,932

Cash invested: $32,165 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57783

• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$602
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $716/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $899

Max offer price $114,875

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,719
• Closing costs: $3,446
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $114,875 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,875 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,875 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,875 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,875 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,875 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,875 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,875 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,875 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,875 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,875 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,875 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,875 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,875 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,875 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,875 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $114,875 Active 455-char remark
18. 2019-07-11
    listed $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $716 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,505 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$789/yr (+$66/mo · 110.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,435
• − Property taxes: −$716
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$3,342
• Taxable income: $9,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,191
• After-tax cash flow: $8,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spearfish School District 40-2
• NCES district ID: 4666930
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,524
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3199
• State rank: #32 of 59 in SD

Livability — North Spearfish

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #11447

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Spearfish, SD
• County: Lawrence County · 17,248 people
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• Population (ZIP): 17,248
• Household income: $74,844
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 580.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,092 people
• By 2030: 28,137 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 29,908 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 31,789 · +17.3%
• By 2075: 38,917 · +43.6%
• By 2100: 50,407 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.3) · D 32.9% · R 64.3% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -31.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.3 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.59%
• Current HPI: 206.2001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

+170.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $114,875 MRAOR
• 2019-07-11 Listed $42,500 MRAOR

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $716 · +55.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.