1500 W Thornton Pkwy #416

Thornton, CO 80260

$165,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,349/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $873/mo
• Annual: $10,477/yr
• Cap rate: 12.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.68%
• DSCR: 2.01
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in CO, #2,583 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Adams 12 Five Star Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 86 in CO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 138 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.5% in Thornton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,349/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1521% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.