1500 W Thornton Pkwy #416 · Thornton, CO 80260

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Talk about pride in ownership. This stately home has been fully remodeled and cared for. Situated in the Woodland Hills community this home is just down the block from WaterWorld. Amenities include a swimming pool, playground, and a clubhouse. The home itself has extensive work including all paneling removed and replaced with drywall, textured, and painted; newer flooring, roof, and siding. The kitchen, boasts a two-tier countertop and pantry. Primary room with its own primary bathroom. Truly a gem, call today and schedule your showing.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool

Tags

• WOODLAND HILLS COMMUNITY
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• CLUBHOUSE
• TWO-TIER COUNTERTOP
• PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: City water with meter; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Manufactured home
• Construction: Composition construction materials; Composition and metal roof
• Exterior features: Land lease community; Partial fencing; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Separate dining room; Cathedral ceilings; Open floorplan; Pantry; Kitchen island; Window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.5% in Thornton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in CO, #2,583 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Adams 12 Five Star Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 86 in CO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 138 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,349/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1521% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.68%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,672
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1801 W 92nd Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	6mo	$85,000	$54	65
1801 W 92nd Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	8mo	$93,000	$59	63
9100 Tejon St #150	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$70,000	$52	58
1801 W 92nd Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-4%)	7mo	$80,000	$53	58
1801 W 92nd Ave #300	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	19mo	$101,000	$64	55
1801 W 92nd Ave #711	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	21mo	$115,000	$73	53
1801 Unit 23 W 92nd Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-4%)	17mo	$70,000	$46	50
1801 W 92nd Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+14%)	7mo	$140,000	$78	40
1801 W 92nd Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	7mo	$93,000	$69	40
1801 W 92nd Ave #652	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	9mo	$16,000	$12	39
1801 W 92nd Ave #61	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	12mo	$56,500	$42	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $23,651
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $71,713
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80260

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,349 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $587/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,244

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8972 Fox Dr Unit 102 Thornton, CO	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,295	$1.56	5d	1	0.46mi
1051 Milky Way Unit 1 Thornton, CO	4.0	2.5	1518	$2,100	$1.38	24d	1	0.50mi
1051 Milky Way Unit 1 Thornton, CO	4.0	3.0	1518	$2,300	$1.52	5d	1	0.50mi
1801 W 92nd Ave #754 Denver, CO	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,995	$1.78	5d	1	0.53mi
8488 Kalamath Ct Denver, CO	3.0	2.5	1892	$2,600	$1.37	11d	1	0.66mi
1654 Aspen Meadows Cir Unit Labs Denver, CO	3.0	2.5	1355	$2,400	$1.77	24d	1	0.80mi
9710 Huron St Unit B Northglenn, CO	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,080	$1.61	18d	1	0.93mi
9783 Croke Dr Denver, CO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,999	$1.61	5d	1	0.95mi
8670 Clay St Unit 4211 Westminster, CO	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,186	$1.97	24d	1	1.03mi
8670 Clay St Unit 6301 Westminster, CO	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,325	$2.09	24d	1	1.03mi
8670 Clay St Unit 5201 Westminster, CO	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,550	$2.30	24d	1	1.03mi
8670 Clay St Unit 7219 Westminster, CO	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,373	$2.14	24d	1	1.03mi
9400 Elm Ct #645 Denver, CO	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,203	$1.86	24d	1	1.03mi
475 Russell Blvd Thornton, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,266	$2.57	2d	16	1.19mi
300 Russell Blvd Thornton, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,740	$2.05	3d	7	1.20mi
536 Niver Ave Northglenn, CO	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,979	$1.70	24d	1	1.32mi
546 Leona Dr Denver, CO	4.0	2.0	1998	$3,300	$1.65	2d	1	1.33mi
8751 Pearl St Denver, CO	3.0	2.0	1378	$2,500	$1.81	12d	1	1.34mi
1921 W 101st Ave Unit 1921 Thornton, CO	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,800	$2.10	15d	1	1.35mi
229 W 81st Pl Denver, CO	5.0	3.0	2000	$7,895	$3.95	22d	1	1.35mi
7961 Granada Rd Denver, CO	3.0	2.0	1850	$3,300	$1.78	12d	1	1.39mi
10154 Wyandott Cir N Thornton, CO	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,465	$1.68	16d	1	1.46mi
2921 W 81st Ave Unit C Westminster, CO	3.0	4.0	1710	$2,500	$1.46	11d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 542-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $587 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $908 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 54.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$587
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,255
• − Management: −$2,255
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $8,227
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,975
• After-tax cash flow: $8,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adams 12 Five Star Schools
• NCES district ID: 0806900
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $67,478
• Composite: 34.87/100
• National rank: #5086
• State rank: #26 of 86 in CO

Livability — Thornton

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #2583

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thornton, CO
• County: Adams County · 464,133 people
• City population: 182,398
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• Population (ZIP): 34,677
• Household income: $61,852
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1521.0

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 598,184 people
• By 2030: 651,880 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 759,778 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 862,889 · +44.3%
• By 2075: 1,085,994 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 1,211,318 · +102.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 30% Two or more races 26% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.2% · R 44.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+16.3 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.84%
• Current HPI: 285.4552
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $165,000 IRES

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $587 · +435.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.