8002 Le Havre Pl #12

Merrifield, VA 22042

$215,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Built 1966 · Condo · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,494/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$854
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-370/mo
• Annual: $-4,439/yr
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-370 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (24.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in VA, #90 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mantua Elementary (math 76% / reading 82%, grade A, #161 of 1,108 statewide, top 14%, 932 students, 13% FRL); Jackson Middle (math 54% / reading 69%, grade B+, #147 of 342 statewide, top 44%, 1,053 students, 53% FRL); Falls Church High (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #299 of 319 statewide, top 94%, 2,118 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 21% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.4% in Merrifield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?