1901 Millington Sq

Bel Air North, MD 21015

$275,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,870 sqft · Built 1993 · Townhouse · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,866/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$359
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $338/mo
• Annual: $4,050/yr
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#35 in MD, #1,269 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $275k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.