808 Ox Bow

Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$425,000D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,169 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,532/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$797
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $-265/mo
• Annual: $-3,180/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (16.9% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $353k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,532/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 45% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.