808 Ox Bow · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$425,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,169 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1979 10,227 sqft lot $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come be apart of Horseshoe Bay with this rare opportunity! Plenty of equity to be created at this affordable price in the prestigious Horseshoe Bay Community. This house has so much space and such amazing views, the home was built to entertain! Every aspect was designed to enjoy the interior space and take in the breathtaking hill country views. Large bedrooms with multiple full bathrooms, everyone can have their own private space. The backyard is quite the peaceful oasis with wild deer roaming the premises often. The grand entrance is very welcoming and impressive. A 4th bedroom can be used as a flex space, with its own full bathroom. The home is in great condition and ready for its new

Key facts

• Grand entrance
• Flex space
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• GRAND ENTRANCE
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Horseshoe Bay Property Owners Association); Annual association fee of $360.99; Association fee covers grounds and structure maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered carport; 3 parking spaces total
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Spanish tile roof; Masonry and wood siding construction; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Deck; Patio; Exterior steps; Back yard; Sloped down lot; Few trees; Small trees; Has view; Faces south

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Bidet; Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Granite counters; In-law floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $353k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,532/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 45% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $353,250 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $944,362
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2820 Aurora	0.24mi	4/3.5	3,304 (+4%)	8mo	$599,000	$181	73
609 Hi Stirrup	0.38mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,204 (+1%)	2mo	$945,000	$295	72
2713 Aurora	0.29mi	4/5.0	3,124 (-1%)	19mo	$950,000	$304	64
125 Cardinal	0.59mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,148 (-1%)	11mo	$975,000	$310	58
620 Hi Stirrup	0.45mi	4/3.5	3,008 (-5%)	14mo	$895,000	$298	57
—	0.66mi	4/4.5	3,300 (+4%)	20mo	$3,955,000	$1,198	44
308 Sombrero Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,738 (-14%)	8mo	$690,000	$252	27
201 Silver Spur Dr	0.61mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,725 (-14%)	19mo	$789,000	$290	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-9,940
• Equity at exit: $143,880

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $48,537
• Equity at exit: $190,274

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,532 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$620 /mo · $7,438/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,868

Max offer price $378,184

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-145	+0% $-265	+5% $-385	+10% $-506
Rent	-10% $-544	-5% $-405	+0% $-265	+5% $-125	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-157	base $-265	+0.5pp $-375	+1.0pp $-487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2805 Aurora Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	3916	$4,000	$1.02	24d	1	0.28mi
305 Fire Dance Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	2416	$3,800	$1.57	44d	1	0.67mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	44d	1	0.68mi
717 Indian Paint Blvd Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	2742	$3,650	$1.33	24d	1	0.93mi
820 Broken Arrow Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.5	3328	$4,590	$1.38	44d	1	1.01mi
415 Horseshoe Bay North Blvd Unit 1 Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	4.5	2375	$3,500	$1.47	44d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $425,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,438 · $620/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,778 · $648/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$7,438
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,391
• − Management: −$3,391
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$10,486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,517
• After-tax cash flow: $-664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $425,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,438 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.