23002 Prairie Rd

Sedro-Woolley, WA 98284

$450,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-1,232/mo
• Annual: $-14,778/yr
• Cap rate: 3.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.73%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (39.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (47.2% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $238k (47.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Samish Elementary School (176 students, 49% FRL); Cascade Middle School (697 students, 58% FRL); Sedro Woolley Senior High School (1,276 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.4% in Sedro-Woolley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.