23002 Prairie Rd · Sedro-Woolley, WA 98284

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2002 1.24 ac lot $370/sqft · 7% below area Est $485k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of rural serenity and modern convenience with this charming 1,215-square-foot home in Sedro-Woolley. Situated on a sprawling 1.24-acre lot, this property offers ample space for outdoor enthusiasts, gardening, or simple peaceful seclusion away from the hustle and bustle. The well-designed interior features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, anchored by an inviting living area. A standout feature of this home is the recently added mini-split system, providing efficient whole-house air conditioning and supplemental heating for year-round comfort. The functional layout maximizes the square footage, providing a seamless flow between the kitchen and living spaces. Located in S

Key facts

• 1.24 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options include Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: Senior exemption available

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric and propane energy sources; Community water; Septic sewer; Propane water heater located in a closet; Internet service available (Astound); Power service by PSE
• Home design: Manufactured home on land; Double wide; One story; Main entry
• Construction: Built as a 2002 Palm Harbor double wide (model N49X45A2); Wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Forced air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (39.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (47.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (47.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.4% in Sedro-Woolley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Samish Elementary School (176 students, 49% FRL); Cascade Middle School (697 students, 58% FRL); Sedro Woolley Senior High School (1,276 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,762 (47.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.73%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $485,000
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -7.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $166,681
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $552,602
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98284

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,750/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-1,232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,937

Max offer price $271,796

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-921	-5% $-1,076	+0% $-1,232	+5% $-1,387	+10% $-1,543
Rent	-10% $-1,419	-5% $-1,325	+0% $-1,232	+5% $-1,138	+10% $-1,044
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,005	-0.5pp $-1,117	base $-1,232	+0.5pp $-1,348	+1.0pp $-1,467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,750
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,283
• − Management: −$2,283
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$23,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,600
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sedro-Woolley School District
• NCES district ID: 5307740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,385
• Composite: 47.45/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #117 of 291 in WA

Livability — Sedro-Woolley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,835
• Household income: $93,006
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 502.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.42%
• Current HPI: 1280.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $450,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-9.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $372 · +37.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.