2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,120 sqft ·
Built 1968
· Manufactured
· Active
· 132 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,712/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$308
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$570
Net cashflow
$864/mo
Annual
$10,370/yr
Cap rate
11.90%
Cash-on-cash
20.02%
DSCR
1.89
1% rule
1.47%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $864 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.4% in El Cajon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6J6VGWBVC4VM74
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29