6332 E Vista Dr

Phoenix, AZ 85253

$3,899,999D

4 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,539 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,813/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,452
• Tax + insurance: −$2,476
• HOA: −$600
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,011
• Net cashflow: $-19,725/mo
• Annual: $-236,703/yr
• Cap rate: 0.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.68%
• DSCR: 0.04
• 1% rule: 0.12%
• Cash to close: $1,092,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $3.90M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20k ($-237k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $415k (89.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $481k (87.7% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.55M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $415k (89.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $417k of equity ($27k loan paydown + $390k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Mohave Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #43 of 218 statewide, top 20%, 799 students, 31% FRL); Saguaro High School (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #78 of 381 statewide, top 20%, 1,466 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2.48M; list at $3.90M implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$670k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($185k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 89% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.