21223 Maple Dr

Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$579,900F

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,939 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,877/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,041
• Tax + insurance: −$707
• HOA: −$14
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-1,489/mo
• Annual: $-17,867/yr
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.59%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $162,372

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $580k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (45.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (50.4% below list).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($510k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $288k (50.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garfield Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 106 students, 68% FRL); Lingle Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 766 students, 56% FRL); Rogers Heritage High School (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #138 of 292 statewide, top 48%, 2,080 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $438k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.6% in Lost Bridge Village — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?