41157 Ponderosa Park Ln

Pablo, MT 59860

$178,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 275 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,224/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-263/mo
• Annual: $-3,162/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.34%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $49,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#296 in MT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ronan H S (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #252 of 339 in MT (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: K William Harvey Elem (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #223 of 293 statewide, top 79%, 425 students, 0% FRL); Ronan Middle School (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #122 of 146 statewide, top 84%, 446 students, 0% FRL); Ronan High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #108 of 132 statewide, top 83%, 416 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.