41157 Ponderosa Park Ln · Pablo, MT 59860

$178,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily · 274 Days on market

Built 1992

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this recently renovated 1992 Champion Sequoia doublewide mobile home, with modern updates. Located near the base of the Mission Mountains in wonderful Ponderosa Mobile Court, nothing was missed on this home. Brand new, updated bathroom and kitchen, as well as an upgraded roof and gutters. Custom built covered decks with local barnwood accents. Fresh paint throughout the interior as well as exterior of the home. Brand new windows, vinyl flooring, and stainless steel appliances. Mobile home comes with matching storage shed on a rented lot. Contact Melissa Libby at 406-407-5002 or your real estate professional.

Key facts

• Custom covered decks
• Renovated bathroom
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• UPGRADED ROOF
• CUSTOM COVERED DECKS
• MATCHING STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Built by Champion; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Side porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Microwave; Refrigerator; Updated/remodeled interior
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($303/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#296 in MT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ronan H S (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #252 of 339 in MT (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: K William Harvey Elem (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #223 of 293 statewide, top 79%, 425 students, 0% FRL); Ronan Middle School (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #122 of 146 statewide, top 84%, 446 students, 0% FRL); Ronan High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #108 of 132 statewide, top 83%, 416 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,212
• Equity at exit: $26,540

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-21,529
• Equity at exit: $15,390

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59860

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$222 /mo · $2,670/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,557

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $87	+0% $25	+5% $-36	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-38	+0% $25	+5% $88	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $71	base $25	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $178,000 Active 274 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $178,000 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,000 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $178,000 Active 265 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,000 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $178,000 Active 261 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $178,000 Active 260 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $178,000 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $178,000 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,000 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,000 Active 254 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Active 253 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $178,000
18. 2025-12-19
    price $198,000
19. 2025-09-20
    listed $225,000 Active
20. 2023-06-02
    soldstatus Closed 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Come check out this recently renovated 1992 Champion Sequoia doublewide mobile home, with modern updates. Located near the base of the Mission Mountains in wonderful Ponderosa Mobile Court, nothing was missed on this home. Brand new, updated bathroom and kitchen, as well as an upgraded roof and gutters. Custom built covered decks with local barnwood accents. Fresh paint throughout the interior as well as exterior of the home. Brand new windows, vinyl flooring, and stainless steel appliances. Mobile home comes with matching storage shed on a rented lot. Contact Melissa Libby at 406-407-5002 or your real estate professional.

21. 2023-04-12
    historical Active Under Contract 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Come check out this recently renovated 1992 Champion Sequoia doublewide mobile home, with modern updates. Located near the base of the Mission Mountains in wonderful Ponderosa Mobile Court, nothing was missed on this home. Brand new, updated bathroom and kitchen, as well as an upgraded roof and gutters. Custom built covered decks with local barnwood accents. Fresh paint throughout the interior as well as exterior of the home. Brand new windows, vinyl flooring, and stainless steel appliances. Mobile home comes with matching storage shed on a rented lot. Contact Melissa Libby at 406-407-5002 or your real estate professional.

22. 2023-03-09
    price $139,900 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Come check out this recently renovated 1992 Champion Sequoia doublewide mobile home, with modern updates. Located near the base of the Mission Mountains in wonderful Ponderosa Mobile Court, nothing was missed on this home. Brand new, updated bathroom and kitchen, as well as an upgraded roof and gutters. Custom built covered decks with local barnwood accents. Fresh paint throughout the interior as well as exterior of the home. Brand new windows, vinyl flooring, and stainless steel appliances. Mobile home comes with matching storage shed on a rented lot. Contact Melissa Libby at 406-407-5002 or your real estate professional.

23. 2022-12-21
    price $160,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Come check out this recently renovated 1992 Champion Sequoia doublewide mobile home, with modern updates. Located near the base of the Mission Mountains in wonderful Ponderosa Mobile Court, nothing was missed on this home. Brand new, updated bathroom and kitchen, as well as an upgraded roof and gutters. Custom built covered decks with local barnwood accents. Fresh paint throughout the interior as well as exterior of the home. Brand new windows, vinyl flooring, and stainless steel appliances. Mobile home comes with matching storage shed on a rented lot. Contact Melissa Libby at 406-407-5002 or your real estate professional.

24. 2022-11-29
    listed $169,000 Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Come check out this recently renovated 1992 Champion Sequoia doublewide mobile home, with modern updates. Located near the base of the Mission Mountains in wonderful Ponderosa Mobile Court, nothing was missed on this home. Brand new, updated bathroom and kitchen, as well as an upgraded roof and gutters. Custom built covered decks with local barnwood accents. Fresh paint throughout the interior as well as exterior of the home. Brand new windows, vinyl flooring, and stainless steel appliances. Mobile home comes with matching storage shed on a rented lot. Contact Melissa Libby at 406-407-5002 or your real estate professional.

25. 2022-09-30
    listed $169,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$2,670
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable loss: −$2,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$646
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ronan H S
• NCES district ID: 3022800
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,640
• Composite: 23.78/100
• National rank: #13226
• State rank: #252 of 339 in MT

Livability — Pablo

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #23720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pablo, MT
• City population: 430
• Population (ZIP): 11,580

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,614 people
• By 2030: 30,774 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 30,830 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 31,195 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 33,748 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 35,779 · +16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 13% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.5% · R 58.4% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.9pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+14.5 2016: R+21.3 2012: R+10.4 2008: D+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.28%
• Current HPI: 238.0612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

+5.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $178,000 MRMLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $198,000 MRMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $225,000 MRMLS
• 2023-06-02 Sold (MLS) — MRMLS
• 2023-04-12 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2023-03-09 Price Changed $139,900 MRMLS
• 2022-12-21 Price Changed $160,000 MRMLS
• 2022-11-29 Listed $169,000 MRMLS
• 2022-09-30 Listed $169,000 MRMLS