14610 Mono Way #7

East Sonora, CA 95370

$34,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1961 · Manufactured · Active · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,619/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax + insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $1,038/mo
• Annual: $12,454/yr
• Cap rate: 41.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.45%
• DSCR: 6.67
• 1% rule: 4.64%
• Cash to close: $9,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#501 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Curtis Creek Elementary (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #755 of 1,571 statewide, top 49%, 440 students, 54% FRL); Sonora High (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 919 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.