5186 Spring Dr

Mount Pocono, PA 18370

$385,900F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,319 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,024
• Tax + insurance: −$513
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-893/mo
• Annual: $-10,721/yr
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.92%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $108,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $386k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-893 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (40.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (46.1% below list).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (46.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#362 in PA, #3,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $246k; list at $386k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 5.1% in Mount Pocono — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.