5186 Spring Dr · Mount Pocono, PA 18370

$385,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1986 0.65 ac lot Est $313k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

* * * DO YOU NEED A HOLIDAY GIFT IDEA, I THINK I HAVE IT FOR YOU * * * This beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home is designed for comfort and everyday enjoyment. The inviting lower level offers a warm fireplace and a stylish wet bar—an ideal setup for gatherings or cozy nights in. Step outside to take in the stunning sunsets from the rear of the home, providing the perfect evening retreat. Situated in a prime central location, private development with NO HOA DUES, the home offers unbeatable convenience for employees of Sanofi, Great Wolf, Camelback, Kalahari, and Mt. Airy Casino, and close to the outlets for many shopping needs, as well as quick access to major commuter

Key facts

• Stylish wet bar
• Warm fireplace
• Private development

Tags

• WARM FIREPLACE
• STYLISH WET BAR
• PRIME CENTRAL LOCATION
• PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $386k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-893 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (40.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (46.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (46.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 5.1% in Mount Pocono — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#362 in PA, #3,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $246k; list at $386k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,063 (46.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.92%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,603
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5113 Wiscasset Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+0%)	8mo	$249,000	$189	66
2497 Brookdale Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+6%)	4mo	$330,000	$237	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-31,205
• Equity at exit: $151,454

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-4,412
• Equity at exit: $217,518

Cash invested: $108,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18370

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,024
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,232/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-893

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,212

Max offer price $228,067

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,475
• Closing costs: $11,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1950 Pennsylvania 611 Swiftwater, PA	2.0	1.0	952	$1,872	$1.97	44d	7	0.83mi
1960 Pennsylvania 611 Swiftwater, PA	2.0	1.0	1139	$2,262	$1.99	44d	14	0.87mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-13
   price $385,900
3. 2025-12-05
   listed $389,900 Active
4. 2005-08-31
   soldstatus $245,500
5. 1983-12-02
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,232 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,165 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: +$933/yr (+$78/mo · 22.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,616
• − Property taxes: −$4,232
• − Insurance: −$1,930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − Depreciation: −$11,226
• Taxable loss: −$18,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,327
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Pocono

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #3166

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 867

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Scandinavian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Current HPI: 165.9747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+3759.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $385,900 PMAR
• 2025-12-05 Listed $389,900 PMAR
• 2005-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $245,500 Public Records
• 1983-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,232 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.