408 Hunt Rd

Cherry Creek, NY 14723

$185,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,582 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 1402 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$401
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-533/mo
• Annual: $-6,395/yr
• Cap rate: 2.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.34%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-533 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (50.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (42.7% below list).
• It's been on market 1402 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (50.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,081 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton) (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #512 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Valley Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 307 students, 47% FRL); Pine Valley Central Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 217 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 1402 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.