408 Hunt Rd · Cherry Creek, NY 14723

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,582 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1402 Days on market

Built 1985 1.00 ac lot $72/sqft · 31% below area Est $269k · 31% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Offered for sale is this whimsical cottage in the forest. Set on one private and serene acre of woods, pictures do not do this house justice. It is an eclectic mix of rustic style and creative architecture. The kitchen features a huge island, a cozy breakfast nook, exposed beams, and a six burner restaurant range. As you go through you will be delighted at every turn. Each room offers a unique setting, huge windows look out onto the forested yard. Listed as a four bedroom, there are two other potential bedrooms. Some other features are: heated floor in the kitchen, decks, balconies and lofts, spiral stair, walk out basement, newer furnace, newer septic system.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electrical service; Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Two-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal and shingle roof; Block and poured foundation; Basement (partial) with sump pump
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); Wooded, rectangular agricultural lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Propane heating; Forced air; Radiant floor heating
• Interior features: Skylights; Sliding glass doors; Den; Loft; Second kitchen; Bonus room; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-533 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (50.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (42.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (50.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,081 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton) (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #512 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Valley Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 307 students, 47% FRL); Pine Valley Central Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 217 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1402 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $90,864 (50.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1402 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.34%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,847
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -31.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $347
• Equity at exit: $95,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $34,942
• Equity at exit: $158,488

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14723

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,735

Max offer price $90,864

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-428	-5% $-481	+0% $-533	+5% $-585	+10% $-638
Rent	-10% $-617	-5% $-575	+0% $-533	+5% $-491	+10% $-449
Rate	-1.0pp $-440	-0.5pp $-486	base $-533	+0.5pp $-581	+1.0pp $-630

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 1402 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 1401 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 1399 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 1398 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 1397 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 1396 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 1394 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 1393 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 1390 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 1389 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 1388 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 1386 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 1384 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 1383 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 1382 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 1381 DOM
17. 2026-01-12
    status Active
18. 2025-08-12
    price $185,000
19. 2023-01-06
    price $259,900
20. 2022-09-28
    price $269,900
21. 2022-08-19
    listed $289,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,885 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,885 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,018
• − Management: −$1,018
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$9,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,367
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton)
• NCES district ID: 3623070
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 21.00%
• Median HH income: $44,734
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #5129
• State rank: #512 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cherry Creek

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1081
• US rank: #21746

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,060

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 2% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Current HPI: 564.7093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-36.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-06 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $185,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-01-06 Price Changed $259,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-09-28 Price Changed $269,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-08-19 Listed $289,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,885 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.