9 Chamiso Dr

Los Alamos, CA 93440

$895,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,714 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 208 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,693
• Tax + insurance: −$1,016
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $-575/mo
• Annual: $-6,897/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $250,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $895k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-575 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $793k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $650k (27.4% below list).
• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($788k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $650k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,007 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Orcutt Union Elementary (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #414 of 1,400 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $649k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Los Alamos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.