500 W Santa Maria St #4

Santa Paula, CA 93060

$268,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 191 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $479/mo
• Annual: $5,744/yr
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.65%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $75,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $268k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $268k).
• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#331 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A-, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Santa Paula Unified (town): math 26% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,004 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blanchard Elementary (254 students, 76% FRL); Isbell Middle (1,010 students, 72% FRL); Santa Paula High (1,708 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $268k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.0% in Santa Paula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.