1819 E Lake Rd

Skaneateles, NY 13152

$121,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1892 · SingleFamily · Pending · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,893/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$639
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $678/mo
• Annual: $8,140/yr
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.85%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $34,132

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#148 in NY, #2,279 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Skaneateles Central School District (town): math 78% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #65 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waterman Elementary School (288 students, 10% FRL); Skaneateles Middle School (math 71% / reading 80%, grade A, #51 of 729 statewide, top 7%, 290 students, 17% FRL); Skaneateles Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 428 students, 12% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.0% in Skaneateles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.