1819 E Lake Rd · Skaneateles, NY 13152

$121,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1892 0.28 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the Town of Spafford, within the Skaneateles School District, and just minutes from Skaneateles Lake. This one-bedroom, one-bath home sits on nearly an acre (0.76 acres) in a peaceful rural setting. The home features a covered front porch, wide plank wood floors, an updated kitchen, and a wood-burning fireplace. An additional room leading to the bedroom offers useful extra space upstairs. This property offers a range of possibilities and can be best appreciated in person to see its true potential.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Town of spafford
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• TOWN OF SPAFFORD
• SKANEATELES SCHOOL DISTRICT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WIDE PLANK WOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.0% in Skaneateles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#148 in NY, #2,279 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Skaneateles Central School District (town): math 78% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #65 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waterman Elementary School (288 students, 10% FRL); Skaneateles Middle School (math 71% / reading 80%, grade A, #51 of 729 statewide, top 7%, 290 students, 17% FRL); Skaneateles Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 428 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $107,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.85%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $23,465
• Equity at exit: $18,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $76,120
• Equity at exit: $10,540

Cash invested: $34,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13152

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$639
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,528/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,035

Max offer price $121,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $747	-5% $713	+0% $678	+5% $644	+10% $609
Rent	-10% $529	-5% $604	+0% $678	+5% $753	+10% $828
Rate	-1.0pp $740	-0.5pp $709	base $678	+0.5pp $647	+1.0pp $615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,475
• Closing costs: $3,657
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $121,900 Pending 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 133 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $121,900 Active Under Contract 131 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2026-02-23
    price $121,900
17. 2026-01-19
    listed $126,900 Active
18. 2026-01-05
    historical
19. 2025-04-05
    listed $127,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$266/yr (+$22/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,528
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$3,546
• Taxable income: $6,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $6,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Skaneateles Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626940
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,561
• Composite: 68.61/100
• National rank: #340
• State rank: #65 of 590 in NY

Livability — Skaneateles

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #2279

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.82%
• Current HPI: 424.2545
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $121,900 CNYIS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $126,900 CNYIS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-04-05 Listed $127,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,528 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.