4712 S Kenaka Bena Loop

Big Lake, AK 99652

$490,000F

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,368 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,208/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax + insurance: −$817
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-1,642/mo
• Annual: $-19,706/yr
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.36%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $137,200

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $490k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (48.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (54.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $221k (54.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 382 students, 74% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.