4712 S Kenaka Bena Loop · Big Lake, AK 99652

$490,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,368 sqft · Land · 5 Days on market

Built 2025 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice cleared lot ready to build located in the heart of Big Lake recreational area.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 6 open parking spaces; No attached garage or carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Multi-Family property; Built in 2025
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Poured concrete foundation and slab
• Exterior features: Gravel and paved road access; Shingle / composition / asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Multi-family property layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (48.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (54.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (54.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 382 students, 74% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $220,771 (54.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.36%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-45,530
• Equity at exit: $220,325

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-15,381
• Equity at exit: $339,547

Cash invested: $137,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99652

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 18.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$612 /mo · $7,350/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-1,642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,286

Max offer price $252,374

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,500
• Closing costs: $14,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $490,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 357-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $490,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $490,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $490,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 322-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $490,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,448
• − Property taxes: −$7,350
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − Depreciation: −$14,255
• Taxable loss: −$29,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,020
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• City population: 4,066
• Population (ZIP): 4,066

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2127.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $490,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $529,000 AKMLS
• 2025-05-12 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2025-04-17 Pending — AKMLS
• 2024-05-20 Listed $34,995 AKMLS
• 2011-04-20 Listed $22,000 AKMLS
• 2006-01-01 Listed $22,000 AKMLS
• 2004-08-27 Listed $22,000 AKMLS