4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,874 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 59 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,885/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,753
Tax + insurance
−$557
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$606
Net cashflow
$-31/mo
Annual
$-377/yr
Cap rate
6.18%
Cash-on-cash
-0.40%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$93,603
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $334k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-377/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (1.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (13.7% below list).
It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $288k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6M0MDSDW1GA2GC
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29