3538 Ambersweet Xing · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$334,298

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,874 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $345k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This expansive two-story home boasts a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a covered lanai extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Serene owner's suite
• Covered lanai

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED LANAI
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• SERENE OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3538 Ambersweet Xing, Parrish FL 34219; Listing status: Active; Last updated: May 20, 2026
• Financial info: List price $334,298

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Columbus plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,874

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $334k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-377/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $288,457 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,816
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17837 Haden Cv	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,847 (-1%)	1mo	$326,998	$177	86
3805 Ambersweet Xing	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,874 (0%)	8mo	$325,000	$173	84
3818 Ambersweet Xing	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,874 (0%)	8mo	$300,000	$160	83
17827 Garden Grove Way	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	0mo	$365,000	$180	76
3539 Night Star Ter	0.19mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,849 (-1%)	7mo	$345,000	$187	76
3123 Pineberry Xing	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	1mo	$425,000	$209	73
3540 Night Star Ter	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	5mo	$375,000	$185	72
3325 Night Star Ter	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	4mo	$450,000	$221	71
3547 Night Star Ter	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	10mo	$374,597	$184	67
3523 Night Star Ter	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	10mo	$375,000	$185	66
3813 Ambersweet Xing	0.22mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (+13%)	1mo	$345,000	$163	63
3427 Night Star Ter	0.24mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (+13%)	8mo	$379,000	$179	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-64,584
• Equity at exit: $49,845

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-91,310
• Equity at exit: $28,904

Cash invested: $93,603 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,753
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$418 /mo · $5,014/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,924

Max offer price $329,747

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $84	+0% $-31	+5% $-147	+10% $-262
Rent	-10% $-259	-5% $-145	+0% $-31	+5% $82	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $54	base $-31	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,574
• Closing costs: $10,029
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	25d	1	1.11mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,726
• − Property taxes: −$5,014
• − Insurance: −$1,671
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,769
• − Management: −$2,769
• − Depreciation: −$9,725
• Taxable loss: −$6,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $1,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B