4249 Buford Valley Way

Sugar Hill, GA 30518

$231,315C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,739 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Under Contract · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,332/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,213
• Tax + insurance: −$464
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $165/mo
• Annual: $1,975/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $64,768

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $231k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $231k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#53 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sugar Hill Elementary School (math 55% / reading 56%, grade C, #173 of 1,228 statewide, top 14%, 1,107 students, 44% FRL); Lanier Middle School (math 52% / reading 56%, grade B-, #53 of 470 statewide, top 12%, 1,349 students, 46% FRL); Lanier High School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #149 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,853 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 590 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.