8 Running Bear Ln

Towamensing Trails, PA 18210

$230,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $652/mo
• Annual: $7,825/yr
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.15%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,361 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jim Thorpe Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #394 of 539 in PA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 453 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.8% in Towamensing Trails — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.