313 Elm Pass 2 Rd

Center Point, TX 78010

$290,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,068 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,819/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $505/mo
• Annual: $6,054/yr
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.46%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (2.8% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Center Point ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.9% in Center Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.