313 Elm Pass 2 Rd · Center Point, TX 78010

$290,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,068 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1976 5.17 ac lot $272/sqft · at area comps Est $285k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 5.17-acre property has a lot of potential! It is a great country property with two homes. One is a 392 sq. ft. cabin with 1 bedroom, 1 bath, kitchen, a small loft area, with front and back covered porch areas. The second house is a single-wide mobile home 2 bedroom 1.5 bath, and needs some TLC. Additionally, there is a workshop/garage with an attached covered carport, a separate potential workshop area, and a horse area. The property also features a Culligan water system that works but needs a new filter, as well as a seasonal creek. The property is being sold "AS IS. "

Key facts

• 5.17 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.9% in Center Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Center Point ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.46%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,043
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: 1.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
363 Elm Pass II Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	0mo	$320,000	$286	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $39,020
• Equity at exit: $100,697

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $131,254
• Equity at exit: $135,138

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78010

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $970/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,180

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $290,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $290,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on marketlisting id $290,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $290,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    This 5.17-acre property has a lot of potential! It is a great country property with two homes. One is a 392 sq. ft. cabin with 1 bedroom, 1 bath, kitchen, a small loft area, with front and back covered porch areas. The second house is a single-wide mobile home 2 bedroom 1.5 bath, and needs some TLC. Additionally, there is a workshop/garage with an attached covered carport, a separate potential workshop area, and a horse area. The property also features a Culligan water system that works but needs a new filter, as well as a seasonal creek. The property is being sold "AS IS. "

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $290,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    This 5.17-acre property has a lot of potential! It is a great country property with two homes. One is a 392 sq. ft. cabin with 1 bedroom, 1 bath, kitchen, a small loft area, with front and back covered porch areas. The second house is a single-wide mobile home 2 bedroom 1.5 bath, and needs some TLC. Additionally, there is a workshop/garage with an attached covered carport, a separate potential workshop area, and a horse area. The property also features a Culligan water system that works but needs a new filter, as well as a seasonal creek. The property is being sold "AS IS. "

19. 2024-12-02
    price $290,000
20. 2024-12-02
    price $290,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,307 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,337/yr (+$361/mo · 447.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$970
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,706
• − Management: −$2,706
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable income: $1,314
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$315
• After-tax cash flow: $5,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Center Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813350
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,127
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4939
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Center Point

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,819

Population outlook (Kerr County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,010 people
• By 2030: 55,651 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 58,923 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 62,117 · +15.0%
• By 2075: 71,809 · +33.0%
• By 2100: 77,004 · +42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 26% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Kerr

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+59.1 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Current HPI: 226.9684
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $290,000 KVMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $290,000 KVMLS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $290,000 KVMLS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $290,000 KVMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $970 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.