4151 S Harvest Creek Pl

Nampa, ID 83686

$369,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · Built 2026 · Other · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,216/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-463/mo
• Annual: $-5,552/yr
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.36%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $103,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-463 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (40.1% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $222k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nampa School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #82 of 92 in ID (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reagan Elementary School (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #227 of 357 statewide, top 65%, 543 students, 37% FRL); East Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 38%, grade F, #102 of 109 statewide, top 95%, 668 students, 49% FRL); Columbia High School (math 16% / reading 52%, grade F, #115 of 169 statewide, top 68%, 1,239 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 545 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Nampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.