4151 S Harvest Creek Pl · Nampa, ID 83686

$369,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · Other public records

Built 2026 6,141 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1148 square foot Alderwood has long been a favorite for those seeking both comfort and function in a modestly-sized single-level home. High vaulted ceilings add volume to the already expansive living room, overlooked by the open kitchen, and adjoining dining area. The generous main suite boasts its own private bathroom and substantial oversized closet. The additional two bedrooms are equally sizeable and share a second bathroom. A large laundry closet offers valuable storage space to this incredibly efficient home. Photos and floorplan are of a similar home. Upgrades and selections shown may vary. Contact Agent for specific details.

Key facts

• 6,141 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Hayden Homes; Subdivision: Harvest Creek; Public road frontage
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage dimensions listed: 20 x 19; garage door 16 x 7); Finished driveway; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected; Cable connected; Broadband internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction by Hayden Homes; Facing direction not specified; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Built in 2026; Concrete and frame construction with wood siding; Composition/architectural-style roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Standard lot with sidewalks and views; Cul-de-sac location; Irrigation available; Auto/pressurized sprinkler system (partial); Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Granite counters; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Freestanding oven/range; Gas range; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level (Primary: ~14 x 13; Bedroom 2: ~11 x 11; Bedroom 3: ~11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms; Primary bathroom with double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas) with ceiling heating features; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level with an en-suite bath; Great room; Double vanity in bath; Walk-in closet(s); Pantry; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater (tank); Tank water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-463 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (40.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Nampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nampa School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #82 of 92 in ID (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reagan Elementary School (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #227 of 357 statewide, top 65%, 543 students, 37% FRL); East Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 38%, grade F, #102 of 109 statewide, top 95%, 668 students, 49% FRL); Columbia High School (math 16% / reading 52%, grade F, #115 of 169 statewide, top 68%, 1,239 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 545 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $221,642 (40.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.36%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-89,039
• Equity at exit: $55,167

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-113,891
• Equity at exit: $31,990

Cash invested: $103,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83686

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 545
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $830/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,802

Max offer price $288,263

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-253	-5% $-358	+0% $-463	+5% $-567	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-638	-5% $-550	+0% $-463	+5% $-375	+10% $-288
Rate	-1.0pp $-276	-0.5pp $-369	base $-463	+0.5pp $-559	+1.0pp $-656

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,498
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3391 S Rosa Parks Way Nampa, ID	4.0	2.0	2290	$2,450	$1.07	4d	1	0.61mi
3912 E Clear Springs Dr Unit 1460922P Nampa, ID	4.0	2.0	1593	$4,961	$3.11	4d	1	0.73mi
3480 S Avondale Ave Nampa, ID	3.0	2.0	1627	$2,050	$1.26	5d	1	0.82mi
2124 S Happy Valley Rd Nampa, ID	4.0	2.0	2476	$2,400	$0.97	16d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $369,990 Pending
2. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $378,990 Pending 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $398,990 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $398,990 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $398,990 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $398,990 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   listed $369,990 Active 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (638 chars)

   The 1408 square foot Edgewood is a mid-sized home catering to those who value both comfort and efficiency in a single level home. An award-winning designed kitchen, featuring a breakfast bar and ample counter space, overlooks both the spacious living and dining rooms. The separate main suite affords you privacy and features two large closets in addition to a dual vanity ensuite. The two sizable bedrooms - one of which may be used as an optional den - share a full bathroom and complete this design-smart home plan. Photos and floorplan are of a similar home. Upgrades and selections shown may vary. Contact Agent for specific details.

8. 2026-05-13
   listed $398,990 Active 638-char remark

   Show marketing remark (638 chars)

   The 1408 square foot Edgewood is a mid-sized home catering to those who value both comfort and efficiency in a single level home. An award-winning designed kitchen, featuring a breakfast bar and ample counter space, overlooks both the spacious living and dining rooms. The separate main suite affords you privacy and features two large closets in addition to a dual vanity ensuite. The two sizable bedrooms - one of which may be used as an optional den - share a full bathroom and complete this design-smart home plan. Photos and floorplan are of a similar home. Upgrades and selections shown may vary. Contact Agent for specific details.

9. 2026-05-13
   listed $386,990 Active

   Show marketing remark (638 chars)

   The 1408 square foot Edgewood is a mid-sized home catering to those who value both comfort and efficiency in a single level home. An award-winning designed kitchen, featuring a breakfast bar and ample counter space, overlooks both the spacious living and dining rooms. The separate main suite affords you privacy and features two large closets in addition to a dual vanity ensuite. The two sizable bedrooms - one of which may be used as an optional den - share a full bathroom and complete this design-smart home plan. Photos and floorplan are of a similar home. Upgrades and selections shown may vary. Contact Agent for specific details.

10. 2026-05-12
    listed $398,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,553 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,723/yr (+$144/mo · 207.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,725
• − Property taxes: −$830
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$10,763
• Taxable loss: −$12,427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,983
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nampa School District
• NCES district ID: 1602340
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $43,576
• Composite: 27.18/100
• National rank: #7022
• State rank: #82 of 92 in ID

Livability — Nampa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #6250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nampa, ID
• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 142,249
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 60,993
• Household income: $86,518
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 834.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.85%
• Current HPI: 297.3608
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.25%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $369,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Listed $398,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Listed $386,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Listed $398,990 IMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $830 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.