3 Haddox Rd

Madrone, NM 87002

$139,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 934 sqft · Built 1978 · Other · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,474/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $349/mo
• Annual: $4,187/yr
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.69%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#367 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gil Sanchez Elementary (297 students, 100% FRL); Belen Middle (528 students, 100% FRL); Belen High (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #61 of 110 statewide, top 61%, 1,027 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 83% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 24% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Belen Consolidated Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 428 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 833% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $140k implies a 409% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.