3 Haddox Rd · Madrone, NM 87002

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 934 sqft · Other · 212 Days on market

Built 1978 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newly remodeled with new flooring, paint and counter tops, all new electrical throughout, 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home, on 1.25 acres. Mobile Home is Not on a Permanent Foundation

Key facts

• New counter tops
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW COUNTER TOPS
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• 1.25 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RR-1; Lot size about 1.25 acres
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Septic tank; Shared well
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces south; Resale property
• Construction: Metal pitched roof; Mobile home model MEL (14 x 70)
• Exterior features: Full fencing; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom(s)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (combination); Has cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl window features; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#367 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gil Sanchez Elementary (297 students, 100% FRL); Belen Middle (528 students, 100% FRL); Belen High (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #61 of 110 statewide, top 61%, 1,027 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 83% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 24% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Belen Consolidated Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 428 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 833% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $140k implies a 409% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.69%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-520
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $27,873
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87002

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $283/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $388	+0% $349	+5% $149	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $232	-5% $291	+0% $349	+5% $407	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $384	base $349	+0.5pp $313	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,900 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    status Active
16. 2026-02-07
    status Pending
17. 2026-01-29
    price $139,900
18. 2025-08-12
    price $149,900
19. 2025-07-31
    listed $15,000 Active
20. 2024-09-23
    soldstatus
21. 2015-12-22
    soldstatus
22. 2015-11-12
    soldstatus
23. 2010-01-07
    soldstatus
24. 2006-11-20
    soldstatus $27,500
25. 2005-12-05
    soldstatus
26. 2004-08-06
    soldstatus $27,000
27. 2004-04-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $283 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,119 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$836/yr (+$70/mo · 295.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$283
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$472
• After-tax cash flow: $3,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belen Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500180
• Math proficiency: 19% —
• Reading proficiency: 28% —
• Median HH income: $38,445
• Composite: 22.79/100
• National rank: #13408
• State rank: #50 of 95 in NM

Livability — Madrone

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #26944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madrone, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 21,265
• Household income: $51,961
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 31% Two or more races 28% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.62%
• Current HPI: 219.5581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+418.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-07 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $139,900 Southwest MLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $149,900 Southwest MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $15,000 Southwest MLS
• 2024-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 2005-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $283 · +24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.