435 Warren St St

Thermopolis, WY 82443

$209,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,350 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,386/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-219/mo
• Annual: $-2,630/yr
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (34.0% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#12 in WY, #3,016 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hot Springs County School District #1 (town): math 66% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #3 of 41 in WY (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Hot Springs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hot Springs County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Thermopolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.