435 Warren St St · Thermopolis, WY 82443

$209,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1948 4,704 sqft lot $89/sqft · 24% below area Est $278k · 24% under ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity with this versatile tri-plex offering multiple income options! The upper level features a spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit with plenty of room to spread out. The lower level includes two separate 1-bedroom apartments, ideal for maximizing rental potential. Property also includes a storage shed/shop, adding extra value for tenants or owner use. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting the others, this property offers flexibility and potential.

Key facts

• Rental potential
• Separate apartments
• Tri-plex

Tags

• TRI-PLEX
• MULTIPLE INCOME OPTIONS
• STORAGE SHED
• SEPARATE APARTMENTS
• RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Thermopolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#12 in WY, #3,016 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hot Springs County School District #1 (town): math 66% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #3 of 41 in WY (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Hot Springs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Springs County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $138,576 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,565
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -24.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
803 Big Horn St	0.41mi	3/1.2 (-1)	2,328 (-1%)	10mo	$178,500	$77	63
718 Richards St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,573 (+10%)	15mo	$187,000	$73	50
909 Fremont St	0.43mi	4/1.8	2,046 (-13%)	10mo	$279,000	$136	49
219 E Warren St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,140 (-9%)	12mo	$229,900	$107	41
1302 Johnson Ave	0.74mi	4/1.8	2,080 (-12%)	6mo	$280,000	$135	40
103 Circle Dr	0.72mi	5/2.2 (+1)	2,610 (+11%)	14mo	$235,000	$90	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-48,034
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-60,057
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82443

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,386 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,508/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,663

Max offer price $171,185

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-160	+0% $-219	+5% $-279	+10% $-338
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-274	+0% $-219	+5% $-164	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-166	base $-219	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $209,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,900 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,900 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $209,900 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity with this versatile tri-plex offering multiple income options! The upper level features a spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit with plenty of room to spread out. The lower level includes two separate 1-bedroom apartments, ideal for maximizing rental potential. Property also includes a storage shed/shop, adding extra value for tenants or owner use. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting the others, this property offers flexibility and potential.

19. 2026-05-06
    price $209,000 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity with this versatile tri-plex offering multiple income options! The upper level features a spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit with plenty of room to spread out. The lower level includes two separate 1-bedroom apartments, ideal for maximizing rental potential. Property also includes a storage shed/shop, adding extra value for tenants or owner use. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting the others, this property offers flexibility and potential.

20. 2026-03-23
    price $225,000 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity with this versatile tri-plex offering multiple income options! The upper level features a spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit with plenty of room to spread out. The lower level includes two separate 1-bedroom apartments, ideal for maximizing rental potential. Property also includes a storage shed/shop, adding extra value for tenants or owner use. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting the others, this property offers flexibility and potential.

21. 2026-03-17
    listed $425,000 Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity with this versatile tri-plex offering multiple income options! The upper level features a spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit with plenty of room to spread out. The lower level includes two separate 1-bedroom apartments, ideal for maximizing rental potential. Property also includes a storage shed/shop, adding extra value for tenants or owner use. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting the others, this property offers flexibility and potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,508
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$6,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,549
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5603310
• Math proficiency: 66% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,061
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1275
• State rank: #3 of 41 in WY

Livability — Thermopolis

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thermopolis, WY
• Population (ZIP): 4,534

Population outlook (Hot Springs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,645 people
• By 2030: 4,542 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 4,371 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 4,337 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 4,479 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 4,570 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Serbian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Springs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.7% · R 80.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -47.7pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+60.7 2012: R+55.0 2008: R+47.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 325.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-50.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $209,900 WMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $209,000 WMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $225,000 WMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $425,000 WMLS

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,508 · -22.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.